Three-Putt Risk Explorer
Log your three-putts and first-putt opportunities by starting-distance band. This tool divides one by the other to show an observed share, not a predictive risk.
| Band | Three-putts | First-putt opportunities |
|---|---|---|
| 0-15 ft | ||
| 15-30 ft | ||
| 30+ ft |
| Band | Observed share |
|---|---|
| 0-15 ft | no data |
| 15-30 ft | no data |
| 30+ ft | no data |
Observed share, not predicted risk
This tool deliberately calls its result an observed share rather than a risk or a probability. A risk model would need to account for green speed, slope, and countless other factors this tool never sees. What it actually shows is simple: out of your recorded first-putt opportunities from a given distance band, what share ended in a three-putt.
Why the denominator is opportunities, not attempts
The denominator here is first-putt opportunities specifically, meaning every time you faced a first putt from that band, regardless of outcome. This keeps the share meaningful: a band you rarely face will always have a small denominator no matter how many rounds you play, and the sample-size warning reflects that directly.
A single number does not diagnose a cause
A high three-putt share in a band could come from distance misjudgment, a poor green read, or a stroke issue on longer putts; this tool does not try to distinguish between them. For the leave distances behind these three-putts, see the Lag Putting Analyzer.
Where this connects
Combine this with the Putting Make-Rate Map for a fuller picture of your putting by distance, and see Build Better Putting Evidence for why observed share should never be treated as a predictive guarantee.
Frequently asked questions
Is the "three-putt risk" this tool shows an actual predicted probability?
No — it deliberately calls the result an observed share, not a risk or probability. A real risk model would need green speed, slope, and countless other factors this tool never sees. It shows what share of your recorded first-putt opportunities from a band ended in a three-putt.
Why is the denominator "opportunities" rather than total putts?
The denominator is every time you faced a first putt from that distance band, regardless of outcome. This keeps the share meaningful — a band you rarely face will always have a small denominator, and the sample-size warning reflects that directly.
Does a high three-putt share tell me what is causing it?
No. It could come from distance misjudgment, a poor green read, or a stroke issue on longer putts — this tool does not try to distinguish between them, only reports the share.